We produce this data in great detail because we need this detail to accurately assess horse performance in harness races. It is not just about where the horse finished in previous races or what their mile rate was.
Harness racing is similar to other races. We are big believers in assessing horses on how fast they can get from point A to point B over a portion of the race. However, harness racing can be very structured and some horses will have advantage over others in any given race. The advantage will be determined by gate position, gate speed, expected pace and how likely they are to get a run. Once these factors are understood it should be as simple as who can catch the leader based on their finishing speed.
So how does individual sectional data help with this?
Previous performances are used to determine likely finishing speeds. Looking at previous runs and the race speed (first sectionals) compared to how the horse finished the race with that speed and position is how this is done. This can’t be done with race sectionals. Frequently you will see leaders / on pace horses win harness races. This is important to note when the pace of the race is slow, but what you don’t see by these results are the extremely quick horses who make up ground with great final sectionals in that race but never had a chance of winning. By looking at the first time versus the last sections this will tell you how the horse performed. Once you collect a few runs at different speeds you will have an idea of how the horse will perform at different speeds. All horses are different but an easy generallisation is that the slower the pace of a race the quicker a horse will finish so know the first sectionals (pace) is important to evaluate whether the final speeds will be reproduced in races with more pace. Once you have this information you just need to evaluate the right race that those horses will have more chance in.
What is written above should all make sense. Try applying this to raw data and you will be left scratching your head. PJ Harness Analyser combines engineering with many years of trial and error to use this data to it’s fullest. We are happy to provide the secrets to give it a go yourself. Here is what you need to know:
i) Every single track is different. You will need to create track models for each track. Track models need to consider surface material, track dimensions and slopes, how the surface differs from dry to wet and how much energy is needed for a horse to complete different distances and each sectional. Once you have track models you have a mechanism to compare different tracks. PJ Harness Analyser have done this.
ii) You need to be able to compare different distances at different tracks. Generally a mile rate for a sprint race will be quicker than a 2km race for the same horse but this is dependent on paces. Also, you need to compare standing starts with mobile starts and in some instances pacers with trotters. PJ Harness Analyser have done this.
iii) You will need to compare every race with your track models to weed out race variance factors. Did you know the first race in most meetings will produce quicker sectional times in general? How was the track prepared, what the weather was like in the days preceding the race, what the wind was doing during the race and did the race have an usually racing pattern are all factors that will affect the sectional times. PJ Harness Analyser do this for every race.
iv) How will you establish position in running and evaluate this against previous races? Noting pace and position are important you will need to consider theoretical positions in running. You should look at information including, but not limited to, previous race pace and positions, driver ability compared to today’s driver, barrier and row compared to previous starts and performance/position over similar distance and track.
v) How much extra distance will horses have to run compared with previous starts? Did you know a horse that is 1 wide in a race will need to cover an extra 9m per lap in a race compared to a horse on the rails. This can be the difference between first and last. You will need to account for some of this as a factor. And yes, PJ Harness Analyser does this too!
And it all starts with Individual sectionals. That is all there is to it. If you follow what we have provided above, you too can successfully analyse harness racing. We hope you have as much fun learning as we have over our 20 years of development of the techniques.
Don’t be sold on cheap form guides or raw sectional information. If you are serious about Harness Racing give our product a go for free.